The Champions League has never looked quite like this. Thirty clubs head into the final night of the league phase with their futures still undecided, creating a Wednesday evening packed with tension, permutations and genuine jeopardy.

The expanded 36 team format has delivered exactly what it promised. Congestion, chaos and consequence. Eighteen matches kick off simultaneously at 20:00 GMT, with qualification, seeding and survival all hanging in the balance.

For English clubs in particular, the stakes could hardly be higher. Six remain in contention for top eight places, something that has never happened before in this competition, let alone from a single nation.

Arsenal are the exception. Calm, dominant and already secure. Everyone else is still scrapping.

Arsenal arrive at the final round in complete control. Seven wins from seven have already sealed qualification for the last 16, and just a single point at home against Kairat Almaty would confirm top spot ahead of Bayern Munich.

Finishing first or second carries significant rewards. The top two sides avoid the play-offs entirely and are guaranteed to play the second leg at home in every knockout round up to the final in Budapest.

Opta’s data models currently make Arsenal favourites to lift the trophy, rating their chances at 31 percent, well clear of Bayern on 16.9 percent. It is a reflection not just of results, but of performance levels across the league phase.

Bayern know the equation. Avoid defeat away at PSV Eindhoven and a top-two finish is assured.

Under the new format, the difference between finishing eighth and ninth is enormous.

Teams placed first to eighth advance straight to the last 16. Those finishing ninth to 24th must navigate a two-legged play-off in February just to get there.

Avoiding those extra matches is vital. Fixture congestion is already severe, and the physical and tactical cost of two additional high-stakes European ties could shape domestic title races later in the season.

Liverpool, Tottenham, Newcastle United and Chelsea currently occupy top-eight positions, but none are safe.

Manchester City sit just outside on goal difference, part of a tightly packed cluster of eight teams all on 13 points.

One swing of goal difference could change everything.

Three sides can secure top-eight places with a simple win.

Liverpool and Real Madrid sit on 15 points, while Tottenham are on 14. Victory on matchday eight removes all doubt.

Liverpool host Qarabag at Anfield, knowing a professional performance should be enough. The message from the dressing room has been clear.

“It’s all down to us again. Let’s make sure we’re in the top eight,” said Virgil van Dijk after the win in Marseille.

Tottenham travel to Eintracht Frankfurt, who are already eliminated. Spurs won in Frankfurt last season during their Europa League run and will expect to impose themselves again.

Real Madrid face a more awkward assignment away to Benfica, managed by their former coach Jose Mourinho. Benfica need a win to keep faint play-off hopes alive, while Madrid are chasing certainty.

This final night is rich in narrative as well as numbers.

Mourinho spent three seasons in Madrid and led them to three consecutive Champions League semi-finals. Now his Benfica side must beat his old club to avoid an early European exit.

Chelsea face a similarly emotional reunion in Naples. Antonio Conte, who delivered a league title at Stamford Bridge, now stands between his former side and top-eight safety.

Napoli sit outside the play-off places on goal difference and need a positive result. Conte’s intensity will not be in short supply.

“Former Chelsea boss Antonio Conte wears his passion on his sleeve,” is an understatement in a fixture that could hinge on fine margins.

For Newcastle United, the task is formidable. Eddie Howe’s side travel to Paris Saint-Germain, one of only two matches where top-eight contenders face each other directly.

A win would likely secure a place in the last 16. A defeat could drop them into the play-offs or worse, depending on results elsewhere.

Manchester City, meanwhile, host Galatasaray knowing victory may still not be enough. Goal difference could yet decide whether they climb into the top eight or remain stuck in the play-off positions.

Chelsea are in a similar position. Win in Naples and hope. Draw or defeat and calculators will be required.

Remarkably, everyone down to Qarabag in 18th still has a mathematical chance of finishing in the top eight.

The chaos does not stop at the top eight.

Only four clubs are already eliminated. Everyone else down to Ajax in 32nd still has a route into the top 24 and the play-offs.

Just three points separate Marseille in 19th from Ajax, while even Borussia Dortmund in 16th are not mathematically safe.

The sheer spread of possibilities is unprecedented. Sixteen teams are chasing six automatic qualification spots, yet only two of the final 18 fixtures involve those sides playing each other.

It means swings in one stadium could ripple across half the table.

With so many clubs level on points, tie-breakers will play a crucial role.

The first criteria are familiar. Goal difference comes first, then goals scored.

After that, things get more complex.

Away goals scored and away wins are next, followed by a measure of the collective strength of opponents faced during the league phase. In effect, an alternative table assessing fixture difficulty.

If that still does not separate sides, disciplinary records come into play, before UEFA coefficients act as the final decider.

It is unlikely the latter stages will be needed, but on a night this unpredictable, nothing can be ruled out.

This final round encapsulates why the Champions League remains football’s most compelling club competition.

Thirty teams. Eighteen matches. One kick-off time.

For some, it will be confirmation of elite status. For others, a painful slide into extra fixtures or early elimination.

By 22:00 GMT, the chaos will settle into clarity. Until then, the calculators are out, the nerves are shot, and Europe waits.