Good morning, The Football Newsletter readers,

Pep Guardiola’s body language on the sidelines against Brighton told a story that’s becoming hard to ignore. Manchester City’s 2-1 loss marked their fourth consecutive defeat, the first time in Guardiola’s career he’s faced such a streak in normal time. For a club accustomed to dominance, this dip is uncharted territory—and questions are mounting as City trail Liverpool by five points in the Premier League.

Today, we break down what’s going wrong, why City’s struggles are worrying, and whether this slump could signal a shift in the balance of power in the title race.

Guardiola was visibly tense even before Joao Pedro’s 77th-minute equaliser sparked Brighton’s comeback, with Matt O’Riley later driving the final nail with a late winner. After the final whistle, Guardiola engaged in an animated exchange with Brighton’s Jan Paul van Hecke, perhaps reflecting his frustration with City’s porous defence and a team that suddenly looks vulnerable.

Four consecutive defeats—not just the scorelines but the patterns emerging in those losses—have raised alarms. This isn’t the City we’re used to seeing.

City’s problems are cropping up at both ends of the pitch. Last season, they averaged 2.53 goals per game, but this season it’s down to 2, despite taking more shots per game. The team’s big chance conversion has dropped from 38% to 29.8%, underscoring a growing reliance on Erling Haaland for goals.

Defensively, they’re conceding 1.17 goals per game, up from 0.92 last season. Brighton’s win marked the first time City have lost a Premier League game after leading at half-time since 2021, and teams are finding it easier to break through their back line. Vulnerability like this is rare for Guardiola’s City and is giving rivals the kind of hope they haven’t had in years.

Brighton’s strategy was clear: target City’s right flank, where Kyle Walker, now 34, struggled to keep up with Brighton’s attackers. Rico Lewis, who often steps into midfield, has left City’s right side exposed, and it’s showing in the stats. A telling 38.7% of attacks against City have come down their right this season, compared to 36% on the left.

This weakness isn’t just circumstantial—it’s being actively exploited, and Guardiola has yet to find a way to shore up this vulnerability.

One name keeps coming up: Rodri. The Ballon d’Or-winning midfielder’s absence has left a gaping hole in City’s midfield. Since the start of last season, City’s win percentage with Rodri stands at 73.6%. Without him? It drops to 58.3%.

With Rodri out, City’s cohesion and defensive stability have visibly weakened. Former City defender Micah Richards noted on Match of the Day, “They’re going as individuals… too easy to play through.” Jamie Redknapp echoed that sentiment on Sky Sports, saying, “There was no way City lose those four games if Rodri plays.”

City’s depth is usually one of their strengths, but injuries have taken a toll. Kevin de Bruyne, Ruben Dias, Jack Grealish, Jeremy Doku, Nathan Ake, and Manuel Akanji have all missed time. The absences have disrupted the balance and forced Guardiola to juggle line-ups in a way he hasn’t had to in recent seasons.

Adding to the tension is Guardiola’s own contract situation. His current deal expires next June, and with close ally and director of football Txiki Begiristain set to leave at the end of the season, questions loom about Guardiola’s long-term future at City. The usual November contract extensions haven’t materialised, and if City’s poor form continues, this could become another point of contention.

It’s no secret that even the best squads need fresh energy and motivation after years of success. Since Guardiola’s arrival, City have won six Premier League titles, a Champions League, and a host of domestic trophies. But there’s a sense that this squad, while highly talented, may need new faces and new hunger to keep up the intensity.

If there’s anyone who can answer these questions, it’s Guardiola. He’s been in similar situations before, rallying his team from behind to clinch titles—like chasing down Arsenal’s eight-point lead last season. However, Liverpool and Arsenal are keenly watching for any sign of weakness, with Liverpool hosting City on 1 December, a match that could prove pivotal.

For all the doom and gloom, City have bounced back from difficult positions before. Liverpool’s current five-point lead doesn’t guarantee the title—the other five teams in Premier League history with a five-point lead at this stage all went on to win, but there’s always room for an exception.

City’s track record suggests they’re capable of turning things around, and Guardiola’s competitive fire was evident as he patrolled the touchline at Brighton. But with upcoming tests and a team that’s showing cracks, it’s fair to ask: Can City and Guardiola bounce back, or are we witnessing the beginning of the end for a dynasty?

Stay tuned, and as always, write off Guardiola at your peril.