Manchester City Set for Champions League Play-Off Showdown – But Should They Fear It?

Manchester City have navigated the Champions League league phase with difficulty, but despite their struggles, few teams will be eager to face them in the play-off round. Pep Guardiola acknowledged the challenge ahead but also hinted at the unpredictability of football.

“They are favourites, yes or yes, they are better than us right now, tonight,” said Guardiola after City’s 3-1 win over Club Brugge secured their place in the knockout play-offs. “But I don’t know what is going to happen in two weeks.”

Heading into matchday eight, City found themselves in an unexpected predicament. The reigning European champions sat 22nd in the table, well below the top-eight automatic qualification spots. Their struggles against Juventus (2-0 loss) and Paris Saint-Germain (4-2 loss) left them in a precarious position, forcing them to get a result against Brugge to avoid an embarrassing early exit.

While they ultimately secured the win, the game itself encapsulated their season so far—disjointed performances, defensive lapses, and moments of brilliance that papered over the cracks.

“We deserve it,” said Guardiola, referring to City’s upcoming play-off against either Real Madrid or Bayern Munich. “I don’t know if they are happy to play against us, but it is what it is. We don’t complain at all, whether it’s Bayern or Madrid. One is the king of the competition, the other one is the second or third king of the competition.”

Despite City’s inconsistency, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich have not been flawless either. The fact that they are also in the play-off round rather than advancing directly to the last 16 suggests weaknesses in their own campaigns. However, history suggests Madrid, in particular, have a psychological edge over City in this competition.

City fans will recall their heartbreak at the Bernabeu in 2022, when Madrid’s dramatic comeback eliminated them in the semi-finals. Even last season, despite City winning 4-0 in the second leg at the Etihad, the first leg in Madrid was a tense 1-1 draw.

Bayern Munich, meanwhile, are struggling under Vincent Kompany. While they top the Bundesliga, their European form has been inconsistent, with defeats to Aston Villa, Barcelona, and Feyenoord. City might feel more confident facing them than the seasoned, battle-hardened Madrid side.

City’s weaknesses were laid bare against Brugge, particularly in transition. The Belgian side exposed gaps in midfield and City’s inability to control counter-attacks, an issue that has plagued them all season.

“I would love to not concede the counter-attack, to have more control,” Guardiola admitted. “But for the absences that we have, we are an old team. Kevin De Bruyne is 34 (in June), Ilkay Gundogan 34, Mateo Kovacic is the same. We don’t have replacements, so they played a lot of minutes.”

The lack of midfield control is a real concern, especially against teams as ruthless as Madrid or Bayern. Guardiola has often bemoaned the absence of Rodri, whose long-term injury has left a massive void in City’s midfield.

“That’s why I’m a little bit scared to play this transitional game against Liverpool, Arsenal, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Brighton,” he added. “They are miles away better than us.”

With a few days left in the transfer window, City could still make moves. They can register three new signings for the play-off round, which may be crucial if they hope to progress further.

While new forward Omar Marmoush has already added energy to the attack, City’s defensive signings—Abdukodir Khusanov and Vitor Reis—are unlikely to have an immediate impact. A midfield addition would make a huge difference, but whether they can secure the right player in time remains to be seen.

Guardiola is pinning his hopes on recovering key players rather than major reinforcements. “What I want, and what I wished from the beginning of the season, is to have the team back, have the players fit,” he said. “That’s why I want, in these two weeks, to have Ruben Dias, Nathan Ake, Jeremy Doku, Oscar Bobb, everybody, to come back. Maybe we can compete.”

Despite their struggles, City have been here before. In January 2019, they were on the ropes in the Premier League but responded by beating Liverpool and ultimately securing the title. Guardiola believes his team can once again rise to the occasion.

“We will see in two weeks what happens,” he insisted. “Sometimes you have the perspective, ‘Oh, it is impossible today,’ but tomorrow? The mindset, the vibes, they change, and I am pretty sure we will try and we will create problems for Madrid or Bayern.”

City’s performances this season have not lived up to their usual high standards, and a tie against Real Madrid or Bayern Munich looks daunting. However, they remain a team capable of producing magic when it matters. Their resilience, attacking firepower, and ability to control games in key moments mean they should not be written off.

This play-off round will be a defining moment in City’s season. Will they rise to the challenge, or will their European crown slip away earlier than expected?