Newcastle United are just 90 minutes away from a shot at silverware, but the closer they get to the second leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final against Arsenal, the more daunting the challenge becomes. Two games. That’s all that stands between them and the chance to end a 70-year wait for domestic glory. Yet, history looms large, and what comes next will shape their season—and possibly their identity as a club.

Newcastle last won a domestic trophy in 1955, lifting the FA Cup for the third time in that decade. Since then, their silverware drought has become part of the club’s DNA. The Inter-Cities Fairs Cup triumph in 1969 remains the only exception, but within England, heartbreak has been a recurring theme.

There were FA Cup final defeats in 1974, 1998, and 1999. A League Cup final loss in 1976. Under Kevin Keegan, the club came agonizingly close to a Premier League title in the mid-1990s, only to fall short. Under Mike Ashley, Newcastle often failed to even take the cups seriously, treating them as secondary competitions. Between 2007 and 2021, they rarely progressed beyond the fourth round, let alone reached a final.

The arrival of new ownership in 2021 changed everything. Eddie Howe led Newcastle to the Carabao Cup final last season, but they were outclassed by Manchester United at Wembley. Still, that run reignited a sense of belief. This season, Newcastle have fought their way to another semi-final, and unlike last year, they are in control. A 2-0 first-leg victory at the Emirates has given them a cushion, but can they hold their nerve?

Newcastle’s first-leg triumph in North London was a statement, but their recent form is mixed. They’ve won 10 of their last 12 matches in all competitions, yet two defeats in their last three—including two successive home losses—have injected some uncertainty. Victories against Wolves and Southampton were hard-fought, but far from convincing.

Adding to the tension is the club’s lack of transfer activity. While rivals strengthen, Newcastle have remained inactive in the January window. Fatigue could become a factor, and injuries are mounting. Joelinton is a doubt for the second leg, and there’s a sense that Howe’s squad needs fresh energy.

Meanwhile, Arsenal have gathered momentum. Four straight wins, including a 5-0 demolition of Manchester City, suggest Mikel Arteta’s side are peaking at the right time. Their attacking form is ominous, and Newcastle’s 2-0 lead suddenly feels fragile.

Newcastle fans know all too well how leads can disappear. The 4-4 draw with Arsenal in 2011, when they clawed back from 4-0 down, remains one of the most famous Premier League comebacks. This time, they must ensure they don’t suffer a collapse of their own.

Steve Harper, the club’s longest-serving player and now academy manager, has often described Newcastle as a “bipolar football club”, swinging from extreme highs to crushing lows. That inconsistency is something Howe has worked hard to address. The appointment of Dr Ian Mitchell as head of psychology in 2023 was a deliberate move to ensure Newcastle handle high-pressure moments better.

“Sometimes you can build a game up unhealthily,” said Howe. “What we’ve tried to do this season is approach every game in the same way. Every game is important. Every game is a cup final for us.”

This mindset will be crucial. If Newcastle allow the weight of history to burden them, they risk freezing. But if they treat it like just another game, they have the talent and tactical discipline to get the job done.

In the first leg, Newcastle executed their game plan perfectly. They absorbed pressure, stayed compact, and took their chances clinically. Arsenal dominated possession but lacked a cutting edge, with only three of their 23 shots on target.

Howe must now decide whether to stick or twist. Does Newcastle sit back and defend their lead? Or do they play on the front foot, looking for an early goal to kill the tie?

“Would we want to be in this position? Yes,” Howe said. “Is it a dangerous scoreline? Only if you don’t perform. We have to be ourselves and be all the good things Newcastle are when we’re playing well.”

The impact of this game extends beyond a cup final. Winning breeds confidence. Losing invites scrutiny. Another early exit could deepen frustration over the lack of January signings and raise questions about the squad’s ability to compete on multiple fronts.

The atmosphere at St James’ Park will be electric. Newcastle fans have waited generations for a moment like this. If they can handle the pressure and book a trip to Wembley, they will edge closer to rewriting their club’s story. If they can go all the way, they will cement themselves in history.

Howe summed it up best: “Forget any talk of a lead. It’s 0-0 and we are at home. What an opportunity to embrace everything in front of us.”

For Newcastle, this is more than just a semi-final. It’s a defining moment. Two games. That’s all. That’s everything.