Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City journey enters a defining phase

When Pep Guardiola was only six months into his reign at Manchester City, he made a remark that felt extraordinary at the time. On the second day of 2017, he suggested that “the process of my goodbye has already started”. It was not said for effect. It reflected a genuine belief inside the club that his stay would be intense, transformative and relatively brief.

Those within Manchester City’s hierarchy shared that assumption. The plan was simple. Enjoy Guardiola for the length of his original three year contract and treat anything beyond that as a bonus. No one was thinking about legacies, dynasties or a decade of dominance.

Almost ten years on, Guardiola has confounded everyone, including himself.

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A decade of unprecedented success

Guardiola’s record at Manchester City is staggering. Six Premier League titles. Two FA Cups. Four League Cups. A Champions League, European Super Cup and Club World Cup, all achieved in a glittering 2023 that completed the club’s transformation into a global powerhouse.

This was not just success. It was sustained domination. Between the 2017-18 and 2023-24 seasons, Manchester City won six league titles in seven years, setting benchmarks for points totals, goal tallies and consistency that may never be matched in English football.

Yet now, there is a growing belief inside the game that this season could be Guardiola’s last at the Etihad.

Why this feels different from before

City supporters have heard this before. Guardiola extended his deal in 2020, again in 2022, and once more in late 2024. Each time, his departure felt imminent. Each time, he stayed.

But the tone has changed. While no final decision will be taken until later in the campaign, contingency planning is under way. The sense is not of drama or disagreement, but of a natural cycle reaching its conclusion.

That last extension always felt more like a stabilising move than a declaration of long term commitment. It coincided with upheaval behind the scenes, including a change in sporting director and a difficult run of results. It steadied the ship. It did not necessarily reset the clock.

Beyond trophies: Guardiola’s true legacy

Guardiola’s influence cannot be measured solely in silverware. When he arrived in England in 2016, his possession-based philosophy was viewed with scepticism. Many questioned whether it could succeed in a league defined by intensity, transitions and physicality.

Today, that debate feels almost quaint.

His ideas have filtered through every level of the English game. From the Premier League to the National League, and even onto Sunday League pitches, the Guardiola imprint is everywhere. Playing out from the back, positional play, pressing triggers and technical goalkeepers are now the norm, not the exception.

He did not just win. He changed how English football thinks.

Money, management and myth-busting

Yes, Guardiola has had extraordinary resources. He has coached players of the calibre of Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva, Sergio Aguero, Rodri, Phil Foden and Erling Haaland. But this has never been a simple case of spending power.

Other clubs with comparable budgets have failed spectacularly. Guardiola built teams that were greater than the sum of their parts. He refined elite players, reimagined positions and raised standards relentlessly.

Perhaps most underrated of all is his man-management. The hunger he instilled, season after season, is remarkable. Maintaining motivation while competing against teams as strong as Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool and Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal speaks volumes about his leadership.

Signs of transition rather than decline

The past 18 months have not been flawless. Manchester City finished third last season and endured an alarming slump midway through the campaign. This year, there have been bumps along the way.

But this feels more like transition than decline. Experienced figures such as Ederson, Kyle Walker, Ilkay Gundogan and De Bruyne have moved on. In their place, a younger core is emerging. Guardiola appears to be managing that evolution carefully, perhaps even methodically closing a chapter.

Why leave now? Only he truly knows. Like Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool, there may have been a brief renewal of energy followed by a deeper pull towards change. Loyalty can persuade a manager to begin a rebuild. Seeing it through is another challenge entirely.

The succession dilemma

For years, Manchester City have quietly considered life after Guardiola. At different points, Patrick Vieira, Mikel Arteta and Vincent Kompany were all viewed internally as potential successors.

Today, attention appears to be turning towards Enzo Maresca. The Chelsea head coach is a clear disciple of Guardiola’s methods, having worked under him at City. He has spoken glowingly of his former mentor, while Guardiola has publicly described Maresca as “one of the best managers in the world”.

It would be a fascinating appointment, but also a risky one. Maresca remains relatively inexperienced at the very top level, and any successor will inevitably be compared to the greatest manager in the club’s history.

That is the danger of Guardiola’s shadow. Anyone who follows risks being labelled a diluted version of the original.

The wider context and unanswered questions

There is, of course, an elephant in the room. This era has unfolded alongside serious allegations regarding Manchester City’s financial conduct. The outcome of the Premier League’s investigation is still awaited, years after the first reports emerged.

While there is no suggestion that Guardiola’s future hinges on that verdict, its eventual resolution will shape how this period is remembered by some. City deny all wrongdoing, and these matters sit firmly with the club’s executives, not the manager.

What remains undeniable is Guardiola’s record across Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Manchester. Success followed him everywhere.

An ending that feels inevitable

When Guardiola finally goes, the void will be enormous. Rivals will sense opportunity. Manchester City have won six of the last eight league titles and are again pushing at the top.

There will be banners, pleas and hope for one more year. Perhaps there will even be a farewell tour filled with finals and trophies. But after nine and a half years, the process he spoke of back in 2017 feels very real.

Whoever comes next faces an impossible task.

Pep Guardiola has not just raised the bar at Manchester City. He has redefined it entirely.