The Premier League returns this Friday, and every side will be dreaming of a strong early run to set the tone for their season.

Reigning champions Liverpool get the action under way at Anfield against Bournemouth, while the rest of the fixtures play out across the following three days.

But just how important is it to hit the ground running in those first few matches? And which clubs have been handed a dream start – or a nightmare one – by the fixture list?

History suggests that the early table tells us more than we might think. Last season, the top eight teams after five games went on to finish in the top eight come May – albeit in a different order.

If the same happened again this year, it would mean that with a staggering 33 matches still to play, we could already write off 12 clubs’ hopes of European football through league positions.

The statistics back up the stability of early placings:

Clearly, while nothing is guaranteed, the table after the first month often proves to be a strong indicator of the battles to come.

A fast start isn’t always the sign of a title-winner – but it certainly doesn’t hurt. In fact, only 36% of teams who have been top of the league at the end of September have gone on to lift the trophy. Liverpool achieved that feat last season, but plenty of others have fallen short.

The record points haul after 10 matches is 28 – nine wins and a draw – achieved by Manchester City (2011-12, 2017-18), Chelsea (2005-06) and Liverpool (2019-20). All four of those sides went on to be crowned champions.

However, the next best start – 27 points – hasn’t always led to glory. Newcastle United (1995-96) and Arsenal (2022-23) both saw their title dreams collapse after dominant openings.

Interestingly, Newcastle were top after 10 matches in three consecutive seasons during the 1990s and failed to secure the title each time.

A tally of 26 points after 10 games is even less reliable. Tottenham enjoyed a blistering start under Ange Postecoglou in 2023-24, only to finish fifth.

And it works the other way too – slow starters can still reign supreme. Manchester City were sixth after 10 games in 2020-21 with just 18 points, but went on to win the league by a clear 12-point margin. Remarkably, they weren’t top after 10 matches in any of their last four consecutive title-winning seasons.

For the newly promoted trio – Leeds United, Burnley, and Sunderland – the aim is far more modest: avoid the dreaded drop.

The warning signs are there. In each of the past two seasons, all three promoted sides have been relegated straight back to the Championship.

History offers one key benchmark for survival – 11 points from the first 10 matches. No promoted side in the past decade has been relegated after reaching that mark, and across the Premier League era, the survival rate from that position is a hefty 86%.

But fall just one point short, and the odds plummet. Teams with 10 points after 10 matches have only survived 25% of the time.

Last season, Leicester City found themselves on 10 points at that stage and ended up going down, while Wolves, rooted to the bottom on three points, pulled off a remarkable escape.

For the newcomers this year, those early weeks could define their campaign.

According to Opta’s fixture difficulty ratings for the opening five matches, some clubs will face far sterner tests than others.

At the top of the difficulty scale sit Manchester United and Arsenal, who meet each other on the opening day. Both have daunting schedules:

It’s particularly challenging for new United boss Ruben Amorim, whose side finished a disappointing 15th last season and badly need a strong start to silence the doubters.

On the other end of the spectrum, Aston Villa are considered to have the easiest start, followed by Crystal Palace and West Ham United.

Somewhat surprisingly, Burnley are ranked fourth for fixture ease, despite having to play Tottenham, Manchester United and Liverpool. The reason? An early six-pointer at home against fellow promoted side Sunderland, which could set the tone for their survival hopes.

The numbers make one thing clear – while the Premier League season is a marathon, the first few games are far from meaningless. For title hopefuls, early points can build momentum and confidence. For newly promoted sides, they could make the difference between staying up and going down.

And with Liverpool kicking things off on Friday night, every team – from reigning champions to relegation candidates – will be desperate to start their journey with a bang.